Toronto Raptors 98 @ 120 Phoenix Suns

March 22, 2026 | Mortgage Matchup Center | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

TOR PHX Total
Predicted 112 111 223
Actual 98 120 218
Diff +14 -9 +5
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Isaiah Livers Pred: 1/1/0 | Actual: 0/0/0
Trayce Jackson-Davis Pred: 2/3/1 | Actual: 1/1/1
Oso Ighodaro Pred: 7/7/2 | Actual: 6/7/1
Koby Brea Pred: 3/0/0 | Actual: 0/0/0
Scottie Barnes Pred: 15/7/5 | Actual: 17/5/6
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Brandon Ingram Pred: 27pts | Actual: 6pts (off by 21)
Jakob Poeltl Pred: 10pts | Actual: 0pts (off by 10)

Toronto Raptors

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
RJ Barrett SG 23:14 13 3 3 0 0 3 2 5-8 62.5 1-3 33.3 2-4 50.0 -21.0
Brandon Ingram SF 27:16 6 4 1 0 3 5 2 3-10 30.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -29.0
Immanuel Quickley PG 25:45 11 3 1 2 0 1 2 4-9 44.4 1-5 20.0 2-2 100.0 -22.0
Scottie Barnes PF 25:35 17 5 6 2 0 3 1 8-9 88.9 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -15.0
Jakob Poeltl C 16:35 0 0 2 0 2 0 1 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -13.0
Jamison Battle 10:33 7 2 0 0 0 1 1 3-5 60.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 9.0
Gradey Dick 15:23 10 3 1 1 0 1 1 2-4 50.0 2-3 66.7 4-4 100.0 8.0
Chucky Hepburn DNP - Inactive
Trayce Jackson-Davis 5:56 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 2.0
A.J. Lawson DNP - Inactive
Sandro Mamukelashvili 17:46 5 3 2 0 1 0 1 2-8 25.0 0-4 0.0 1-2 50.0 -6.0
Alijah Martin DNP - Inactive
Jonathan Mogbo 17:14 8 1 2 3 1 0 0 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 2-3 66.7 -1.0
Collin Murray-Boyles DNP - Inactive
Jamal Shead 21:12 2 1 6 0 1 1 3 1-6 16.7 0-4 0.0 0-0 0.0 -22.0
Garrett Temple 7:51 5 1 2 0 1 2 0 1-1 100.0 1-1 100.0 2-3 66.7 9.0
Ja'Kobe Walter 25:39 13 3 1 0 0 1 4 5-7 71.4 3-3 100.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0

Phoenix Suns

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Devin Booker SG 31:21 25 3 6 0 0 2 1 9-15 60.0 3-6 50.0 4-4 100.0 32.0
Jalen Green SF 30:23 20 3 7 0 1 2 3 8-15 53.3 2-5 40.0 2-2 100.0 15.0
Collin Gillespie PG 21:30 16 4 3 1 0 3 4 6-9 66.7 4-6 66.7 0-0 0.0 6.0
Jordan Goodwin PF 24:32 14 7 0 2 0 4 1 5-11 45.5 3-6 50.0 1-1 100.0 3.0
Oso Ighodaro C 26:04 6 7 1 1 3 1 2 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 7.0
Grayson Allen DNP - Inactive
Jamaree Bouyea 19:02 7 2 4 2 0 1 2 3-9 33.3 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 5.0
Koby Brea 4:44 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-3 0.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Dillon Brooks DNP - Inactive
Amir Coffey DNP - Inactive
Ryan Dunn 27:07 12 3 2 3 1 1 1 5-8 62.5 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 17.0
Rasheer Fleming 28:36 11 7 1 2 1 1 3 4-8 50.0 2-5 40.0 1-1 100.0 18.0
Isaiah Livers 4:44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Khaman Maluach 17:12 7 7 0 1 0 1 1 2-4 50.0 1-2 50.0 2-2 100.0 19.0
Royce O'Neale DNP - Coach's Decision
Mark Williams DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: TOR @ PHX
Mar 21, 2026 at 12:32 PM
**Prediction:** TOR 112 - PHX 109 (TOR by 2, total 221) **Confidence:** 75% **TOR** 32-22 (#5) | Net: 1.8 | Off: 111.7 | Def: 109.9 | Rest: 1d rest **PHX** 31-22 (#7) | Net: 2.2 | Off: 112.3 | Def: 110.2 | Rest: 2d rest Projected pace: 101.2 **Injuries:** TOR: Chucky Hepburn (Day-To-Day), A.J. Lawson (Day-To-Day), Collin Murray-Boyles (Out) (impact: -1.1 pts) PHX: Grayson Allen (Day-To-Day), Dillon Brooks (Out), Amir Coffey (Out), Royce O'Neale (Day-To-Day), Mark Williams (Out) (impact: -8.2 pts) **Key Players:** TOR: Brandon Ingram 27.6p/6.0r/3.1a | RJ Barrett 20.9p/5.3r/3.6a | Scottie Barnes 15.6p/6.7r/5.2a PHX: Devin Booker 37.2p/4.0r/5.0a | Jalen Green 25.6p/5.1r/3.9a | Grayson Allen 15.9p/2.2r/5.6a **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred