Minnesota Timberwolves 102 @ 92 Boston Celtics

March 22, 2026 | TD Garden | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

MIN BOS Total
Predicted 107 116 223
Actual 102 92 194
Diff +5 +24 +29
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Baylor Scheierman Pred: 5/4/2 | Actual: 5/4/2
Julian Phillips Pred: 3/1/0 | Actual: 0/0/0
Jaylen Brown Pred: 30/5/6 | Actual: 29/7/4
Joan Beringer Pred: 2/2/0 | Actual: 0/0/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Bones Hyland Pred: 8pts | Actual: 23pts (off by 14)
Julius Randle Pred: 21pts | Actual: 9pts (off by 11)

Minnesota Timberwolves

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Ayo Dosunmu SG 32:10 17 8 6 1 2 2 3 7-13 53.8 2-4 50.0 1-1 100.0 8.0
Jaden McDaniels SF 32:40 19 6 3 0 0 2 1 8-18 44.4 3-7 42.9 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Donte DiVincenzo PG 30:41 8 2 2 1 0 2 1 3-9 33.3 2-7 28.6 0-0 0.0 5.0
Julius Randle PF 29:08 9 9 4 2 0 3 3 3-14 21.4 1-4 25.0 2-4 50.0 -4.0
Rudy Gobert C 26:18 9 14 1 1 4 0 1 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 3-4 75.0 -10.0
Kyle Anderson 15:59 6 4 3 1 0 1 2 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 12.0
Joan Beringer 1:22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Jaylen Clark 12:29 0 3 2 0 0 1 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Anthony Edwards DNP - Inactive
Enrique Freeman DNP - Inactive
Bones Hyland 29:26 23 3 3 1 0 1 1 8-14 57.1 3-7 42.9 4-4 100.0 26.0
Joe Ingles DNP - Coach's Decision
Julian Phillips 1:22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Naz Reid 25:40 11 7 0 0 1 2 3 4-12 33.3 1-4 25.0 2-2 100.0 26.0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 1:22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Rocco Zikarsky DNP - Inactive

Boston Celtics

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Jaylen Brown SG 35:15 29 7 4 0 0 3 1 9-26 34.6 2-6 33.3 9-11 81.8 -8.0
Sam Hauser SF 18:54 2 2 1 0 1 0 1 1-4 25.0 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Derrick White PG 35:41 15 6 1 3 0 3 1 6-15 40.0 1-5 20.0 2-2 100.0 -12.0
Jayson Tatum PF 30:43 16 11 2 2 0 1 0 6-16 37.5 2-7 28.6 2-3 66.7 -4.0
Neemias Queta C 26:57 4 10 1 2 0 0 1 2-5 40.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Charles Bassey 1:45 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Luka Garza 17:23 5 6 1 0 0 2 4 2-7 28.6 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Hugo González 13:57 0 3 1 0 1 1 2 0-3 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Ron Harper Jr. 1:45 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Payton Pritchard 27:21 10 1 3 1 0 1 1 4-11 36.4 2-6 33.3 0-0 0.0 -11.0
Baylor Scheierman 28:33 5 4 2 0 0 0 2 2-4 50.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -16.0
Max Shulga 1:45 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 6.0
John Tonje DNP - Inactive
Nikola Vučević DNP - Inactive
Jordan Walsh DNP - Coach's Decision
Amari Williams DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: MIN @ BOS
Mar 21, 2026 at 12:32 PM
**Prediction:** MIN 106 - BOS 115 (BOS by 9, total 221) **Confidence:** 93% **MIN** 33-22 (#6) | Net: 4.4 | Off: 115.4 | Def: 111.0 | Rest: 1d rest **BOS** 34-19 (#3) | Net: 6.8 | Off: 116.6 | Def: 109.8 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 100.6 **Injuries:** MIN: Anthony Edwards (Out), Naz Reid (Out) (impact: -7.8 pts) BOS: Nikola Vučević (Out) (impact: -3.0 pts) **Key Players:** MIN: Julius Randle 20.8p/7.8r/4.9a | Ayo Dosunmu 15.4p/4.6r/4.1a | Rudy Gobert 12.6p/13.3r/1.8a BOS: Jaylen Brown 35.1p/6.2r/6.5a | Jayson Tatum 21.7p/8.7r/3.7a | Derrick White 18.6p/3.8r/5.5a **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred