Washington Wizards 113 @ 145 New York Knicks

March 22, 2026 | Madison Square Garden | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

WAS NYK Total
Predicted 99 122 221
Actual 113 145 258
Diff -14 -23 -37
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Pacôme Dadiet Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 0/0/0
Dillon Jones Pred: 1/2/1 | Actual: 0/0/0
Karl-Anthony Towns Pred: 28/15/4 | Actual: 26/16/3
Bilal Coulibaly Pred: 16/5/4 | Actual: 13/5/2
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Jaden Hardy Pred: 10pts | Actual: 25pts (off by 14)
Anthony Gill Pred: 4pts | Actual: 18pts (off by 14)
OG Anunoby Pred: 22pts | Actual: 9pts (off by 13)

Washington Wizards

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Bub Carrington SG 34:17 14 1 8 2 0 3 2 4-9 44.4 1-4 25.0 5-8 62.5 -33.0
Bilal Coulibaly SF 29:03 13 5 2 3 2 3 1 5-12 41.7 1-3 33.3 2-3 66.7 -21.0
Will Riley PG 29:27 11 1 4 0 0 2 0 4-9 44.4 1-6 16.7 2-2 100.0 -16.0
Jamir Watkins PF 30:43 5 6 2 3 0 0 4 2-10 20.0 1-7 14.3 0-0 0.0 -20.0
Tristan Vukcevic C 15:08 13 1 1 0 0 1 3 5-9 55.6 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 -14.0
Justin Champagnie DNP - Coach's Decision
Sharife Cooper 29:08 11 3 6 0 2 0 1 5-10 50.0 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -23.0
Anthony Davis DNP - Inactive
Kyshawn George DNP - Inactive
Anthony Gill 26:25 18 5 0 3 0 3 5 8-10 80.0 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 -20.0
Jaden Hardy 29:05 25 3 1 0 0 1 3 9-18 50.0 7-13 53.8 0-0 0.0 -12.0
Tre Johnson DNP - Coach's Decision
D'Angelo Russell DNP - Inactive
Alex Sarr DNP - Coach's Decision
Cam Whitmore DNP - Inactive
Trae Young DNP - Inactive

New York Knicks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Mikal Bridges SG 29:37 14 0 6 0 0 1 1 6-11 54.5 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 28.0
OG Anunoby SF 29:17 9 2 0 0 0 4 0 3-7 42.9 1-3 33.3 2-2 100.0 13.0
Jalen Brunson PG 28:21 23 0 4 1 0 2 2 9-19 47.4 2-5 40.0 3-3 100.0 24.0
Josh Hart PF 27:32 16 6 4 2 0 2 1 5-9 55.6 3-3 100.0 3-3 100.0 24.0
Karl-Anthony Towns C 25:37 26 16 3 1 0 2 2 9-13 69.2 1-2 50.0 7-7 100.0 16.0
Jose Alvarado 16:12 8 2 8 1 0 0 1 3-7 42.9 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Jordan Clarkson 22:50 8 3 4 1 0 1 2 4-6 66.7 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
Pacôme Dadiet 3:27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-2 0.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Mohamed Diawara 19:49 12 1 0 0 0 1 1 4-6 66.7 3-4 75.0 1-2 50.0 3.0
Ariel Hukporti 3:27 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Trey Jemison III DNP - Coach's Decision
Dillon Jones 3:27 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Tyler Kolek 5:24 11 1 1 0 0 0 0 4-4 100.0 3-3 100.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Miles McBride DNP - Inactive
Kevin McCullar Jr. DNP - Inactive
Mitchell Robinson 16:45 10 10 1 0 2 0 0 5-5 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 14.0
Landry Shamet DNP - Inactive
Jeremy Sochan 8:15 8 6 1 0 0 0 1 3-4 75.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 9.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: WAS @ NYK
Mar 21, 2026 at 12:32 PM
**Prediction:** WAS 98 - NYK 121 (NYK by 23, total 219) **Confidence:** 97% **WAS** 14-38 (#14) | Net: -10.3 | Off: 108.0 | Def: 118.3 | Rest: 2d rest **NYK** 34-19 (#2) | Net: 5.5 | Off: 116.8 | Def: 111.3 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 101.8 **Injuries:** WAS: Anthony Davis (Out), Kyshawn George (Out), Tre Johnson (Day-To-Day), Will Riley (Day-To-Day), D'Angelo Russell (Out), Cam Whitmore (Out), Trae Young (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) NYK: Josh Hart (Day-To-Day), Miles McBride (Out), Landry Shamet (Day-To-Day) (impact: -3.5 pts) **Key Players:** WAS: Alex Sarr 16.3p/8.1r/2.4a | Bilal Coulibaly 14.2p/5.4r/3.5a | Bub Carrington 11.4p/3.9r/5.2a NYK: Karl-Anthony Towns 28.3p/15.2r/4.0a | Jalen Brunson 27.3p/2.9r/8.4a | OG Anunoby 22.3p/5.1r/2.6a **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred