Brooklyn Nets 122 @ 126 Sacramento Kings

March 22, 2026 | Golden 1 Center | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

BKN SAC Total
Predicted 107 111 217
Actual 122 126 248
Diff -15 -15 -31
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Drake Powell Pred: 8/2/2 | Actual: 8/3/3
Doug McDermott Pred: 7/2/1 | Actual: 9/2/2
Maxime Raynaud Pred: 19/9/2 | Actual: 22/10/2
Terance Mann Pred: 8/4/3 | Actual: 5/3/2
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
DeMar DeRozan Pred: 26pts | Actual: 10pts (off by 16)
Malik Monk Pred: 16pts | Actual: 32pts (off by 15)
Ben Saraf Pred: 10pts | Actual: 22pts (off by 12)

Brooklyn Nets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Drake Powell SG 27:41 8 3 3 0 0 0 4 4-9 44.4 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Terance Mann SF 26:03 5 3 2 0 0 0 3 2-5 40.0 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Nolan Traore PG 26:06 17 2 4 1 0 2 2 6-12 50.0 2-5 40.0 3-3 100.0 -1.0
Ziaire Williams PF 21:42 18 2 3 2 1 2 2 6-11 54.5 2-3 66.7 4-5 80.0 1.0
Danny Wolf C 12:23 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 4-7 57.1 1-2 50.0 0-2 0.0 -3.0
Ochai Agbaji 9:19 3 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 1-1 100.0 -6.0
Nic Claxton DNP - Inactive
Noah Clowney DNP - Inactive
Egor Dëmin DNP - Inactive
Tyson Etienne 13:11 14 0 1 0 0 0 1 5-6 83.3 4-4 100.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Chaney Johnson 16:28 7 3 3 0 1 1 5 1-3 33.3 1-1 100.0 4-4 100.0 1.0
E.J. Liddell 28:30 1 2 4 0 2 0 3 0-5 0.0 0-3 0.0 1-2 50.0 -1.0
Josh Minott DNP - Coach's Decision
Michael Porter Jr. DNP - Inactive
Ben Saraf 29:18 22 3 5 1 0 2 3 10-20 50.0 0-5 0.0 2-2 100.0 -2.0
Day'Ron Sharpe DNP - Inactive
Jalen Wilson DNP - Coach's Decision

Sacramento Kings

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Nique Clifford SG 26:34 7 4 4 1 0 1 1 2-4 50.0 2-2 100.0 1-2 50.0 5.0
DeMar DeRozan SF 31:51 10 0 8 0 1 2 2 3-7 42.9 0-2 0.0 4-4 100.0 0.0
Precious Achiuwa PF 28:26 14 15 0 1 0 2 1 6-13 46.2 0-0 0.0 2-4 50.0 -4.0
Maxime Raynaud C 36:22 22 10 2 1 1 2 3 10-13 76.9 0-0 0.0 2-4 50.0 1.0
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 16:35 9 6 2 0 1 0 5 3-5 60.0 2-2 100.0 1-1 100.0 1.0
Dylan Cardwell 14:33 5 3 2 0 1 1 1 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 7.0
Devin Carter 27:09 16 5 3 1 0 3 2 5-12 41.7 0-4 0.0 6-8 75.0 -1.0
Drew Eubanks DNP - Coach's Decision
De'Andre Hunter DNP - Inactive
Zach LaVine DNP - Inactive
Doug McDermott 16:12 9 2 2 0 0 1 1 3-4 75.0 3-4 75.0 0-0 0.0 7.0
Malik Monk 29:54 32 2 6 0 1 4 2 8-17 47.1 7-13 53.8 9-9 100.0 1.0
Keegan Murray DNP - Coach's Decision
Daeqwon Plowden DNP - Inactive
Domantas Sabonis DNP - Inactive
Isaiah Stevens DNP - Inactive
Russell Westbrook DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: BKN @ SAC
Mar 21, 2026 at 12:32 PM
**Prediction:** BKN 107 - SAC 111 (SAC by 4, total 217) **Confidence:** 81% **BKN** 15-37 (#13) | Net: -7.3 | Off: 107.7 | Def: 115.0 | Rest: 1d rest **SAC** 12-43 (#15) | Net: -9.9 | Off: 108.0 | Def: 117.9 | Rest: 2d rest Projected pace: 100.5 **Injuries:** BKN: Noah Clowney (Day-To-Day), Egor Dëmin (Out), Terance Mann (Day-To-Day), Michael Porter Jr. (Out), Day'Ron Sharpe (Out) (impact: -8.4 pts) SAC: Devin Carter (Out), Nique Clifford (Day-To-Day), Drew Eubanks (Out), De'Andre Hunter (Out), Zach LaVine (Out), Malik Monk (Day-To-Day), Keegan Murray (Out), Domantas Sabonis (Out) (impact: -6.8 pts) **Key Players:** BKN: Nic Claxton 12.8p/8.9r/3.5a | Ziaire Williams 12.7p/3.2r/1.5a | Noah Clowney 12.3p/4.6r/1.4a SAC: DeMar DeRozan 26.1p/3.0r/6.2a | Maxime Raynaud 19.2p/9.4r/1.8a | Russell Westbrook 18.1p/6.7r/10.2a **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred