Philadelphia 76ers 126 @ 116 Utah Jazz

March 21, 2026 | Delta Center | Final

Grade: B Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

PHI UTA Total
Predicted 118 111 229
Actual 126 116 242
Diff -8 -5 -13
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Quentin Grimes Pred: 22/5/4 | Actual: 25/5/4
Oscar Tshiebwe Pred: 5/6/1 | Actual: 8/6/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Trendon Watford Pred: 9pts | Actual: 20pts (off by 11)
Dominick Barlow Pred: 12pts | Actual: 1pts (off by 10)

Philadelphia 76ers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Quentin Grimes SG 35:36 25 5 4 0 0 4 5 9-15 60.0 1-4 25.0 6-6 100.0 9.0
Dominick Barlow SF 3:41 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 0.0
VJ Edgecombe PG 39:02 22 13 4 1 0 2 3 9-19 47.4 1-4 25.0 3-4 75.0 6.0
Justin Edwards PF 25:17 8 0 1 1 0 0 2 3-10 30.0 1-5 20.0 1-1 100.0 5.0
Adem Bona C 26:33 16 5 0 1 2 0 3 7-12 58.3 0-0 0.0 2-4 50.0 6.0
MarJon Beauchamp 12:39 6 3 1 0 0 1 3 2-4 50.0 0-2 0.0 2-2 100.0 7.0
Johni Broome DNP - Inactive
Andre Drummond 20:36 4 8 2 0 4 2 1 2-5 40.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Joel Embiid DNP - Inactive
Paul George DNP - Inactive
Kyle Lowry DNP - Coach's Decision
Tyrese Maxey DNP - Inactive
Kelly Oubre Jr. DNP - Inactive
Jabari Walker 17:56 8 5 3 1 1 1 4 3-5 60.0 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 5.0
Trendon Watford 23:31 20 9 4 0 0 3 1 7-11 63.6 0-1 0.0 6-6 100.0 15.0

Utah Jazz

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Elijah Harkless SG 35:35 15 4 5 5 1 2 4 6-13 46.2 1-5 20.0 2-2 100.0 -2.0
Ace Bailey SF 33:22 25 7 4 0 5 2 4 7-20 35.0 4-14 28.6 7-8 87.5 3.0
Cody Williams PF 34:53 15 0 3 0 0 3 4 5-15 33.3 0-4 0.0 5-6 83.3 -18.0
Kyle Filipowski C 18:19 12 6 4 1 1 1 3 3-14 21.4 1-8 12.5 5-5 100.0 5.0
Isaiah Collier DNP - Coach's Decision
Keyonte George DNP - Inactive
Jaren Jackson Jr. DNP - Inactive
Walker Kessler DNP - Inactive
John Konchar 25:16 9 5 2 1 1 0 4 4-8 50.0 0-2 0.0 1-1 100.0 -14.0
Kevin Love DNP - Coach's Decision
Lauri Markkanen DNP - Inactive
Svi Mykhailiuk DNP - Coach's Decision
Jusuf Nurkić DNP - Inactive
Brice Sensabaugh DNP - Inactive
Oscar Tshiebwe 10:37 8 6 0 0 0 0 1 4-6 66.7 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -6.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: PHI @ UTA
Mar 21, 2026 at 09:10 AM
**Prediction:** PHI 118 - UTA 111 (PHI by 7, total 229) **Confidence:** 92% **PHI** 30-23 (#6) | Net: 1.2 | Off: 113.5 | Def: 112.3 | Rest: 1d rest **UTA** 17-37 (#13) | Net: -7.7 | Off: 111.7 | Def: 119.4 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 102.9 **Injuries:** PHI: Johni Broome (Out), Joel Embiid (Out), Paul George (Out), Tyrese Maxey (Out), Kelly Oubre Jr. (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) UTA: Isaiah Collier (Out), Keyonte George (Out), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Out), Walker Kessler (Out), John Konchar (Day-To-Day), Lauri Markkanen (Out), Jusuf Nurkić (Out), Brice Sensabaugh (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) **Key Players:** PHI: Quentin Grimes 22.3p/5.0r/4.5a | VJ Edgecombe 20.2p/5.6r/5.1a | Justin Edwards 14.7p/3.4r/2.7a UTA: Ace Bailey 17.3p/4.6r/2.6a | Cody Williams 15.1p/4.7r/3.5a | Kyle Filipowski 12.9p/9.5r/3.7a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE PHI -250 (strong, EV $0.287/dollar) MONEYLINE PHI -260 (strong, EV $0.273/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [team] Utah's young core (Bailey, Collier, Filipowski, Sensabaugh) can massively exceed season averages when given the keys. Ba - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred