Los Angeles Clippers 138 @ 131 Dallas Mavericks

March 21, 2026 | American Airlines Center | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

LAC DAL Total
Predicted 116 112 229
Actual 138 131 269
Diff -22 -19 -40
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Jordan Miller Pred: 10/3/2 | Actual: 10/2/2
Isaiah Jackson Pred: 8/5/1 | Actual: 10/6/2
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Darius Garland Pred: 22pts | Actual: 41pts (off by 19)
Naji Marshall Pred: 18pts | Actual: 28pts (off by 10)

Los Angeles Clippers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Derrick Jones Jr. SG 37:21 15 6 5 1 1 1 2 6-9 66.7 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 5.0
Kawhi Leonard SF 36:05 34 3 5 2 1 2 1 12-22 54.5 5-9 55.6 5-5 100.0 23.0
Darius Garland PG 38:54 41 3 11 1 1 4 0 15-24 62.5 8-12 66.7 3-3 100.0 9.0
John Collins PF 29:14 8 3 0 1 2 1 6 3-7 42.9 1-5 20.0 1-2 50.0 5.0
Brook Lopez C 34:30 10 9 2 0 2 2 1 4-8 50.0 2-6 33.3 0-2 0.0 1.0
Nicolas Batum 20:23 6 6 1 1 0 0 3 2-3 66.7 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Bradley Beal DNP - Inactive
Bogdan Bogdanović DNP - Coach's Decision
Cam Christie DNP - Coach's Decision
Kris Dunn 31:37 4 2 5 2 2 0 4 2-6 33.3 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -6.0
Isaiah Jackson 15:21 10 6 2 0 1 1 4 4-4 100.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 3.0
Yanic Konan Niederhäuser DNP - Inactive
Bennedict Mathurin DNP - Inactive
Jordan Miller 21:34 10 2 2 0 0 0 1 3-7 42.9 0-1 0.0 4-4 100.0 0.0
Kobe Sanders DNP - Coach's Decision
TyTy Washington Jr. DNP - Coach's Decision

Dallas Mavericks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Max Christie SG 23:24 7 4 0 1 1 1 2 2-11 18.2 1-7 14.3 2-2 100.0 -15.0
Cooper Flagg SF 40:31 18 10 8 0 4 2 3 6-16 37.5 0-2 0.0 6-7 85.7 -15.0
Naji Marshall PG 37:05 28 2 4 2 0 2 2 11-23 47.8 1-6 16.7 5-7 71.4 -19.0
P.J. Washington PF 41:24 21 6 0 1 0 0 1 7-14 50.0 3-8 37.5 4-5 80.0 -7.0
Daniel Gafford C 25:17 7 13 1 0 0 1 2 3-8 37.5 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 0.0
Marvin Bagley III 24:34 17 7 1 0 0 2 1 7-8 87.5 2-2 100.0 1-3 33.3 -9.0
Moussa Cisse DNP - Inactive
Kyrie Irving DNP - Inactive
AJ Johnson DNP - Coach's Decision
Dereck Lively II DNP - Inactive
Caleb Martin DNP - Coach's Decision
Khris Middleton 14:22 8 0 0 1 0 1 2 2-6 33.3 2-4 50.0 2-2 100.0 -1.0
Ryan Nembhard 31:20 13 5 9 0 0 0 2 6-10 60.0 0-1 0.0 1-1 100.0 17.0
Dwight Powell DNP - Coach's Decision
Klay Thompson 27:02 12 0 2 0 1 1 1 4-6 66.7 4-4 100.0 0-0 0.0 14.0
Brandon Williams DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: LAC @ DAL
Mar 21, 2026 at 11:29 PM
**Grade: C** — Got the winner at least. **Result:** LAC 138 - DAL 131 (Winner: LAC ✓) **Prediction:** LAC 116 - DAL 112 Score error: 22/19 | Total: pred 229, actual 269 (+40) **Standout Players:** Darius Garland (LAC): 41p actual vs 21.9p pred (-19.1) Naji Marshall (DAL): 28p actual vs 18.0p pred (-10.0) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ MONEYLINE DAL 230 — LOST ✗ MONEYLINE DAL 225 — LOST ✗ SPREAD DAL 6.5 — LOST ✗ SPREAD DAL 7.0 — LOST ✗ TOTAL UNDER 233.5 — LOST ✗ TOTAL UNDER 233.5 — LOST
General Slate Analysis: LAC @ DAL
Mar 21, 2026 at 09:10 AM
**Prediction:** LAC 115 - DAL 115 (DAL by 0, total 229) **Confidence:** 76% **LAC** 25-27 (#10) | Net: -0.4 | Off: 113.4 | Def: 113.7 | Rest: 1d rest **DAL** 19-33 (#12) | Net: -2.9 | Off: 108.3 | Def: 111.2 | Rest: 2d rest Projected pace: 101.5 **Injuries:** LAC: Bradley Beal (Out), Yanic Konan Niederhäuser (Out), Kawhi Leonard (Day-To-Day), Bennedict Mathurin (Day-To-Day) (impact: -2.4 pts) DAL: Kyrie Irving (Out), Dereck Lively II (Out), Caleb Martin (Day-To-Day), Brandon Williams (Out) (impact: -3.3 pts) **Key Players:** LAC: Kawhi Leonard 28.6p/6.4r/3.0a | Darius Garland 22.1p/2.0r/8.0a | Bennedict Mathurin 19.4p/4.6r/2.1a DAL: Cooper Flagg 21.7p/6.7r/4.4a | Naji Marshall 18.0p/6.7r/3.5a | Klay Thompson 15.7p/1.7r/1.5a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE DAL 230 (strong, EV $1.498/dollar) MONEYLINE DAL 225 (strong, EV $1.460/dollar) SPREAD DAL 6.5 (moderate, EV $0.376/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred