Memphis Grizzlies 101 @ 124 Charlotte Hornets

March 21, 2026 | Spectrum Center | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

MEM CHA Total
Predicted 105 121 226
Actual 101 124 225
Diff +4 -3 +1
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Pat Connaughton Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 0/1/0
Grant Williams Pred: 6/3/1 | Actual: 5/4/0
Brandon Miller Pred: 24/4/4 | Actual: 22/5/3
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Cam Spencer Pred: 11pts | Actual: 0pts (off by 11)

Memphis Grizzlies

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Javon Small SG 28:50 17 7 3 1 0 5 1 7-12 58.3 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 -10.0
Jaylen Wells SF 24:37 9 0 1 1 0 2 1 3-12 25.0 3-10 30.0 0-1 0.0 -16.0
Walter Clayton Jr. PG 21:56 11 4 2 2 0 1 4 4-9 44.4 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 -19.0
GG Jackson PF 23:35 19 3 1 0 0 0 2 7-14 50.0 0-5 0.0 5-6 83.3 -14.0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper C 27:16 10 7 1 1 0 1 1 3-8 37.5 1-3 33.3 3-4 75.0 -21.0
Santi Aldama DNP - Inactive
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DNP - Inactive
Brandon Clarke DNP - Coach's Decision
Cedric Coward DNP - Inactive
Zach Edey DNP - Inactive
Taylor Hendricks 24:59 14 2 3 3 1 0 0 4-7 57.1 3-4 75.0 3-4 75.0 -10.0
Ty Jerome DNP - Coach's Decision
Jahmai Mashack DNP - Inactive
Ja Morant DNP - Inactive
Scotty Pippen Jr. DNP - Inactive
Rayan Rupert DNP - Inactive
Cam Spencer 26:04 0 1 4 2 0 1 4 0-7 0.0 0-4 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0

Charlotte Hornets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Brandon Miller SG 30:16 22 5 3 0 1 2 1 8-12 66.7 5-9 55.6 1-2 50.0 20.0
Kon Knueppel SF 21:21 9 3 5 0 0 1 2 3-9 33.3 1-6 16.7 2-4 50.0 7.0
LaMelo Ball PG 28:43 29 3 4 3 1 3 4 9-19 47.4 7-14 50.0 4-5 80.0 12.0
Miles Bridges PF 26:30 13 4 1 1 0 1 1 6-8 75.0 0-0 0.0 1-3 33.3 22.0
Moussa Diabaté C 32:47 11 14 3 1 2 3 1 5-6 83.3 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 21.0
Pat Connaughton 2:53 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Tosan Evbuomwan DNP - Inactive
Josh Green 20:07 5 4 0 1 0 0 1 1-5 20.0 1-3 33.3 2-2 100.0 14.0
PJ Hall DNP - Inactive
Sion James 21:27 8 1 2 1 0 0 1 3-5 60.0 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Ryan Kalkbrenner 15:12 10 2 0 0 0 2 0 4-5 80.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 2.0
Tre Mann 2:53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-2 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Liam McNeeley DNP - Inactive
Antonio Reeves DNP - Inactive
Tidjane Salaün DNP - Inactive
Xavier Tillman DNP - Coach's Decision
Coby White 19:11 12 8 7 0 0 5 4 4-11 36.4 1-4 25.0 3-4 75.0 13.0
Grant Williams 18:37 5 4 0 0 0 0 2 2-3 66.7 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: MEM @ CHA
Mar 21, 2026 at 11:29 PM
**Grade: A** — Called the winner, score was close. **Result:** MEM 101 - CHA 124 (Winner: CHA ✓) **Prediction:** MEM 105 - CHA 121 Score error: 4/3 | Total: pred 226, actual 225 (-1) **Standout Players:** Cam Spencer (MEM): 0p actual vs 11.4p pred (+11.4) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ TOTAL UNDER 235.5 — WON ✓ TOTAL UNDER 235.5 — WON
General Slate Analysis: MEM @ CHA
Mar 21, 2026 at 09:10 AM
**Prediction:** MEM 102 - CHA 119 (CHA by 17, total 220) **Confidence:** 96% **MEM** 20-32 (#11) | Net: -2.0 | Off: 110.1 | Def: 112.2 | Rest: B2B **CHA** 25-29 (#10) | Net: 1.8 | Off: 113.2 | Def: 111.4 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 103.0 **Injuries:** MEM: Santi Aldama (Out), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Out), Brandon Clarke (Out), Cedric Coward (Day-To-Day), Zach Edey (Out), GG Jackson (Day-To-Day), Ty Jerome (Day-To-Day), Jahmai Mashack (Day-To-Day), Ja Morant (Out), Scotty Pippen Jr. (Out) (impact: -9.8 pts) CHA: Tidjane Salaün (Out) (impact: -1.0 pts) **Key Players:** MEM: Ty Jerome 15.1p/2.1r/4.8a | Cedric Coward 13.4p/4.4r/3.0a | GG Jackson 12.4p/4.3r/1.4a CHA: Brandon Miller 23.8p/4.4r/3.9a | LaMelo Ball 21.3p/3.9r/6.4a | Miles Bridges 20.3p/6.2r/3.0a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 235.5 (strong, EV $0.464/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 235.5 (strong, EV $0.458/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred