Oklahoma City Thunder 132 @ 111 Washington Wizards

March 21, 2026 | Capital One Arena | Final

Grade: B Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

OKC WAS Total
Predicted 125 101 226
Actual 132 111 243
Diff -7 -10 -17
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Brooks Barnhizer Pred: 1/2/0 | Actual: 0/3/0
Jaden Hardy Pred: 13/2/1 | Actual: 10/1/2
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Jaylin Williams Pred: 11pts | Actual: 0pts (off by 10)
Anthony Gill Pred: 3pts | Actual: 13pts (off by 10)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Ajay Mitchell SG 15:11 14 1 3 1 0 1 0 6-10 60.0 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Cason Wallace SF 14:42 4 2 3 0 0 0 1 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 1.0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PG 31:49 40 3 7 1 0 3 3 17-27 63.0 1-2 50.0 5-8 62.5 11.0
Chet Holmgren PF 26:52 18 10 0 0 2 1 3 6-9 66.7 0-1 0.0 6-6 100.0 24.0
Isaiah Hartenstein C 25:03 9 20 10 2 0 2 2 4-7 57.1 0-0 0.0 1-4 25.0 11.0
Brooks Barnhizer 5:08 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Branden Carlson DNP - Inactive
Alex Caruso 19:39 4 1 5 1 2 1 3 2-4 50.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 19.0
Luguentz Dort DNP - Inactive
Isaiah Joe 30:31 9 4 2 0 0 1 0 2-8 25.0 2-8 25.0 3-3 100.0 12.0
Jared McCain 28:08 18 3 1 0 1 0 2 6-15 40.0 4-10 40.0 2-3 66.7 15.0
Thomas Sorber DNP - Inactive
Nikola Topić DNP - Inactive
Aaron Wiggins 20:37 5 2 0 1 0 4 1 2-5 40.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Jaylin Williams 8:48 0 3 0 0 1 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 8.0
Jalen Williams DNP - Inactive
Kenrich Williams 13:31 11 3 0 0 0 0 1 4-5 80.0 1-2 50.0 2-4 50.0 7.0

Washington Wizards

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Bub Carrington SG 32:39 19 3 3 0 0 2 3 7-12 58.3 4-7 57.1 1-3 33.3 -7.0
Justin Champagnie SF 13:45 3 1 1 1 0 0 1 1-3 33.3 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Bilal Coulibaly PG 33:44 21 4 4 1 2 1 3 8-15 53.3 3-5 60.0 2-2 100.0 4.0
Will Riley PF 28:17 9 1 4 0 0 4 1 3-8 37.5 0-2 0.0 3-3 100.0 -21.0
Alex Sarr C 22:01 14 5 8 1 1 3 3 5-12 41.7 2-5 40.0 2-2 100.0 4.0
Sharife Cooper 18:46 3 2 2 1 0 1 5 1-6 16.7 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -19.0
Anthony Davis DNP - Inactive
Kyshawn George DNP - Inactive
Anthony Gill 25:50 13 5 1 2 0 1 1 6-9 66.7 0-1 0.0 1-1 100.0 -13.0
Jaden Hardy 19:12 10 1 2 0 0 1 2 4-6 66.7 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 -22.0
Tre Johnson DNP - Coach's Decision
D'Angelo Russell DNP - Inactive
Tristan Vukcevic 19:57 6 7 0 0 0 2 3 2-11 18.2 1-8 12.5 1-3 33.3 -24.0
Jamir Watkins 25:49 13 5 3 2 0 0 4 4-9 44.4 2-5 40.0 3-4 75.0 -5.0
Cam Whitmore DNP - Inactive
Trae Young DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: OKC @ WAS
Mar 21, 2026 at 11:29 PM
**Grade: B** β€” Right winner, scores a bit off. **Result:** OKC 132 - WAS 111 (Winner: OKC βœ“) **Prediction:** OKC 125 - WAS 101 Score error: 7/10 | Total: pred 226, actual 243 (+17) **Standout Players:** Anthony Gill (WAS): 13p actual vs 2.6p pred (-10.4) Jaylin Williams (OKC): 0p actual vs 10.7p pred (+10.7) **Value Bet Results:** βœ— TOTAL UNDER 230.5 β€” LOST βœ— TOTAL UNDER 231.5 β€” LOST βœ“ SPREAD OKC -20.5 β€” WON βœ— SPREAD OKC -21.5 β€” LOST
General Slate Analysis: OKC @ WAS
Mar 21, 2026 at 09:10 AM
**Prediction:** OKC 124 - WAS 101 (OKC by 24, total 225) **Confidence:** 97% **OKC** 41-13 (#1) | Net: 11.6 | Off: 116.6 | Def: 105.1 | Rest: 2d rest **WAS** 14-38 (#14) | Net: -10.3 | Off: 108.0 | Def: 118.3 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 102.6 **Injuries:** OKC: Branden Carlson (Out), Thomas Sorber (Out), Jalen Williams (Out) (impact: -3.3 pts) WAS: Anthony Davis (Out), Kyshawn George (Out), Tre Johnson (Day-To-Day), Will Riley (Day-To-Day), D'Angelo Russell (Out), Cam Whitmore (Out), Trae Young (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) **Key Players:** OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 35.1p/4.2r/8.6a | Chet Holmgren 23.2p/10.8r/1.6a | Ajay Mitchell 18.7p/2.9r/3.6a WAS: Bilal Coulibaly 16.4p/6.3r/3.9a | Alex Sarr 13.1p/8.1r/1.7a | Jaden Hardy 12.6p/1.6r/1.2a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 230.5 (moderate, EV $0.245/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 231.5 (moderate, EV $0.244/dollar) SPREAD OKC -20.5 (slight, EV $0.145/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 β€” Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 β€” off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred