Toronto Raptors 115 @ 121 Denver Nuggets

March 20, 2026 | Ball Arena | Final

Grade: S Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Nailed it. Called the winner and basically the exact score. You're welcome.

TOR DEN Total
Predicted 115 119 234
Actual 115 121 236
Diff 0 -2 -2
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Jamison Battle Pred: 3/1/0 | Actual: 3/1/1
Jamal Shead Pred: 5/1/5 | Actual: 4/2/5
Aaron Gordon Pred: 14/6/2 | Actual: 16/5/3
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Jakob Poeltl Pred: 11pts | Actual: 23pts (off by 11)
Tim Hardaway Jr. Pred: 12pts | Actual: 23pts (off by 11)
Brandon Ingram Pred: 29pts | Actual: 19pts (off by 10)

Toronto Raptors

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
RJ Barrett SG 33:33 18 5 2 0 1 3 3 6-14 42.9 1-5 20.0 5-5 100.0 -4.0
Brandon Ingram SF 35:32 19 5 2 0 0 3 4 7-12 58.3 1-3 33.3 4-6 66.7 2.0
Immanuel Quickley PG 33:58 15 4 8 3 0 1 2 6-11 54.5 3-7 42.9 0-0 0.0 0.0
Scottie Barnes PF 38:04 15 8 8 2 2 2 4 7-18 38.9 1-6 16.7 0-0 0.0 0.0
Jakob Poeltl C 35:08 23 11 2 2 0 0 4 10-14 71.4 0-0 0.0 3-6 50.0 -2.0
Jamison Battle 5:30 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-3 33.3 0-2 0.0 1-1 100.0 -5.0
Gradey Dick DNP - Coach's Decision
Chucky Hepburn DNP - Inactive
Trayce Jackson-Davis DNP - Coach's Decision
A.J. Lawson DNP - Inactive
Sandro Mamukelashvili 13:49 4 2 2 0 0 0 2 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 0.0
Alijah Martin DNP - Inactive
Jonathan Mogbo DNP - Coach's Decision
Collin Murray-Boyles DNP - Inactive
Jamal Shead 21:12 4 2 5 0 0 1 3 2-7 28.6 0-3 0.0 0-1 0.0 -9.0
Garrett Temple DNP - Coach's Decision
Ja'Kobe Walter 23:11 14 2 2 1 1 0 2 4-6 66.7 4-5 80.0 2-2 100.0 -12.0

Denver Nuggets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Christian Braun SG 33:21 11 4 2 0 0 1 4 5-9 55.6 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Cameron Johnson SF 30:55 6 5 2 2 0 1 1 2-7 28.6 0-4 0.0 2-3 66.7 7.0
Jamal Murray PG 39:31 31 5 6 1 0 1 2 10-18 55.6 2-6 33.3 9-10 90.0 2.0
Aaron Gordon PF 28:48 16 5 3 0 1 1 2 6-10 60.0 1-2 50.0 3-5 60.0 -4.0
Nikola Jokić C 37:29 22 8 9 1 1 2 5 9-14 64.3 1-2 50.0 3-5 60.0 -2.0
Bruce Brown 21:02 12 3 0 0 0 2 1 4-6 66.7 2-3 66.7 2-2 100.0 13.0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 27:29 23 4 0 1 0 2 2 8-16 50.0 7-10 70.0 0-0 0.0 12.0
DaRon Holmes II DNP - Inactive
Spencer Jones 17:59 0 3 4 0 0 0 3 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 7.0
Tyus Jones 3:24 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
Curtis Jones DNP - Inactive
Zeke Nnaji DNP - Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett DNP - Coach's Decision
Julian Strawther DNP - Coach's Decision
Jonas Valančiūnas DNP - Coach's Decision
Peyton Watson DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: TOR @ DEN
Mar 21, 2026 at 08:56 AM
**Grade: S** β€” Nailed it. **Result:** TOR 115 - DEN 121 (Winner: DEN βœ“) **Prediction:** TOR 115 - DEN 119 Score error: 0/2 | Total: pred 234, actual 236 (+2) **Standout Players:** Tim Hardaway Jr. (DEN): 23p actual vs 12.0p pred (-11.0) Brandon Ingram (TOR): 19p actual vs 29.1p pred (+10.1) Jakob Poeltl (TOR): 23p actual vs 11.4p pred (-11.6) **Value Bet Results:** βœ“ TOTAL UNDER 239.5 β€” WON βœ“ TOTAL UNDER 238.5 β€” WON βœ“ MONEYLINE DEN -280 β€” WON βœ“ SPREAD TOR 7.5 β€” WON βœ“ SPREAD TOR 7.0 β€” WON βœ“ MONEYLINE DEN -298 β€” WON
General Slate Analysis: TOR @ DEN
Mar 20, 2026 at 04:32 PM
**Prediction:** TOR 115 - DEN 119 (DEN by 4, total 234) **Confidence:** 84% **TOR** 32-22 (#5) | Net: 1.8 | Off: 111.7 | Def: 109.9 | Rest: 1d rest **DEN** 34-20 (#3) | Net: 3.9 | Off: 119.0 | Def: 115.1 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 100.7 **Injuries:** TOR: Chucky Hepburn (Day-To-Day), Collin Murray-Boyles (Out) (impact: -1.0 pts) DEN: Peyton Watson (Out) (impact: -3.0 pts) **Key Players:** TOR: Brandon Ingram 29.4p/6.4r/2.9a | RJ Barrett 23.7p/5.6r/3.2a | Scottie Barnes 21.3p/8.6r/6.3a DEN: Jamal Murray 24.0p/5.3r/7.4a | Nikola Jokić 23.7p/14.9r/10.1a | Christian Braun 15.2p/5.0r/3.4a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 239.5 (moderate, EV $0.217/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 238.5 (slight, EV $0.180/dollar) MONEYLINE DEN -280 (moderate, EV $0.139/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred