BOS @ MEM - NBA Local

Grade: A Prediction Recap

Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

	BOS	MEM	Total
Predicted	119	105	223
Actual	117	112	229
Diff	+2	-7	-6

Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2

Cam Spencer Pred: 10/2/5 | Actual: 11/3/5

Jaylen Brown Pred: 28/6/6 | Actual: 30/6/6

Neemias Queta Pred: 12/9/2 | Actual: 12/11/1

Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+

Jayson Tatum Pred: 25pts | Actual: 13pts (off by 12)

Luka Garza Pred: 10pts | Actual: 22pts (off by 11)

Boston Celtics

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Jaylen Brown	SG	38:09	30	6	6	0	0	1	3	10-23	43.5	2-5	40.0	8-8	100.0	9.0
Sam Hauser	SF	20:37	0	4	1	0	1	0	1	0-3	0.0	0-3	0.0	0-0	0.0	-6.0
Derrick White	PG	35:46	14	5	3	2	1	1	1	6-15	40.0	2-10	20.0	0-1	0.0	-2.0
Jayson Tatum	PF	30:51	13	9	0	0	0	3	2	3-15	20.0	2-9	22.2	5-6	83.3	-5.0
Neemias Queta	C	17:46	12	11	1	0	0	2	3	4-4	100.0	0-0	0.0	4-4	100.0	0.0
Charles Bassey	DNP - Coach's Decision
Luka Garza		27:16	22	7	1	1	0	1	3	9-12	75.0	1-3	33.3	3-5	60.0	9.0
Hugo González		14:33	5	5	1	0	0	0	3	2-2	100.0	1-1	100.0	0-0	0.0	7.0
Ron Harper Jr.		0:06	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	-3.0
Payton Pritchard		31:41	19	6	3	0	0	4	3	5-13	38.5	3-10	30.0	6-6	100.0	9.0
Baylor Scheierman		23:13	2	4	3	1	0	0	1	1-2	50.0	0-1	0.0	0-0	0.0	7.0
Max Shulga	DNP - Coach's Decision
John Tonje	DNP - Inactive
Nikola Vučević	DNP - Inactive
Jordan Walsh	DNP - Coach's Decision
Amari Williams	DNP - Coach's Decision

Memphis Grizzlies

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Javon Small	SG	26:29	13	5	2	0	0	1	4	5-8	62.5	2-4	50.0	1-1	100.0	16.0
Jaylen Wells	SF	20:12	6	0	0	2	0	0	3	3-6	50.0	0-2	0.0	0-0	0.0	-2.0
Ty Jerome	PG	24:57	16	1	7	0	0	0	2	7-17	41.2	2-6	33.3	0-0	0.0	3.0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	PF	30:55	14	7	2	1	0	1	5	4-10	40.0	1-6	16.7	5-7	71.4	2.0
Taylor Hendricks	C	28:33	12	5	2	2	2	0	3	5-7	71.4	0-2	0.0	2-2	100.0	-2.0
Santi Aldama	DNP - Inactive
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	DNP - Inactive
Brandon Clarke	DNP - Coach's Decision
Walter Clayton Jr.		26:30	4	3	2	0	0	2	0	1-7	14.3	0-4	0.0	2-2	100.0	-16.0
Cedric Coward	DNP - Inactive
Zach Edey	DNP - Inactive
GG Jackson	DNP - Coach's Decision
Jahmai Mashack	DNP - Inactive
Ja Morant	DNP - Inactive
Scotty Pippen Jr.	DNP - Inactive
Rayan Rupert	DNP - Inactive
Cam Spencer		22:42	11	3	5	1	0	0	0	4-8	50.0	3-5	60.0	0-0	0.0	-8.0

Add Analysis Entry

General Post-Game Review: BOS @ MEM

Mar 21, 2026 at 08:56 AM

**Grade: A** — Called the winner, score was close.
**Result:** BOS 117 - MEM 112 (Winner: BOS ✓)
**Prediction:** BOS 119 - MEM 105
Score error: 2/7 | Total: pred 223, actual 229 (+6)

**Standout Players:**
  Jayson Tatum (BOS): 13p actual vs 25.3p pred (+12.3)
  Luka Garza (BOS): 22p actual vs 10.2p pred (-11.8)

**Value Bet Results:**
  ✓ TOTAL UNDER 231.5 — WON
  ✓ TOTAL UNDER 230.5 — WON

General Slate Analysis: BOS @ MEM

Mar 20, 2026 at 04:32 PM

**Prediction:** BOS 118 - MEM 105 (BOS by 14, total 223)
**Confidence:** 95%

**BOS** 34-19 (#3) | Net: 6.8 | Off: 116.6 | Def: 109.8 | Rest: 1d rest
**MEM** 20-32 (#11) | Net: -2.0 | Off: 110.1 | Def: 112.2 | Rest: 1d rest
Projected pace: 101.2

**Injuries:**
  BOS: Nikola Vučević (Out) (impact: -3.0 pts)
  MEM: Santi Aldama (Out), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Out), Brandon Clarke (Out), Zach Edey (Out), GG Jackson (Day-To-Day), Jahmai Mashack (Out), Ja Morant (Out), Scotty Pippen Jr. (Out) (impact: -9.7 pts)

**Key Players:**
  BOS: Jaylen Brown 28.5p/6.1r/6.5a | Jayson Tatum 25.6p/8.5r/4.5a | Derrick White 20.8p/5.2r/5.6a
  MEM: Ty Jerome 22.1p/3.6r/6.8a | Cedric Coward 14.0p/6.9r/3.2a | Javon Small 12.8p/3.8r/4.9a

**Value Bets:**
  TOTAL UNDER 231.5 (strong, EV $0.372/dollar)
  TOTAL UNDER 230.5 (moderate, EV $0.324/dollar)

**Applicable Insights:**
  - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out
  - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M
  - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on 
  - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 (
  - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p 
  - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance 
  - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 (
  - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi
  - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted
  - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod
  - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN
  - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com
  - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2
  - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression
  - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte
  - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred

Boston Celtics 117 @ 112 Memphis Grizzlies