Atlanta Hawks 95 @ 117 Houston Rockets

March 20, 2026 | Toyota Center | Final

Grade: B Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

ATL HOU Total
Predicted 111 116 227
Actual 95 117 212
Diff +16 -1 +15
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Reed Sheppard Pred: 14/3/4 | Actual: 14/4/4
Caleb Houstan Pred: 1/0/0 | Actual: 2/1/0
Isaiah Crawford Pred: 1/1/0 | Actual: 2/0/0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Pred: 21/3/3 | Actual: 21/4/4
CJ McCollum Pred: 17/3/3 | Actual: 17/2/2

Atlanta Hawks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Nickeil Alexander-Walker SG 27:17 21 4 4 1 0 3 2 6-12 50.0 1-3 33.3 8-9 88.9 -14.0
Dyson Daniels SF 25:10 3 3 1 2 0 2 1 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -14.0
CJ McCollum PG 25:19 17 2 2 1 3 3 1 7-11 63.6 2-5 40.0 1-1 100.0 -15.0
Jalen Johnson PF 31:53 14 5 3 1 0 4 1 6-12 50.0 2-6 33.3 0-0 0.0 -27.0
Onyeka Okongwu C 23:35 6 8 3 1 2 0 2 2-9 22.2 1-4 25.0 1-2 50.0 -7.0
RayJ Dennis DNP - Inactive
Keshon Gilbert DNP - Inactive
Mouhamed Gueye 18:05 0 2 0 1 1 0 3 0-2 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -17.0
Buddy Hield 8:12 2 0 1 1 0 2 0 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 9.0
Caleb Houstan 3:18 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Corey Kispert 18:15 2 2 2 1 0 0 2 1-6 16.7 0-5 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Christian Koloko DNP - Coach's Decision
Jonathan Kuminga DNP - Inactive
Jock Landale 20:06 6 1 3 2 2 0 3 3-9 33.3 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -18.0
Asa Newell DNP - Inactive
Zaccharie Risacher 19:00 16 6 2 2 1 1 6 6-8 75.0 3-3 100.0 1-1 100.0 0.0
Gabe Vincent 16:48 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 2-7 28.6 0-4 0.0 2-2 100.0 -7.0
Keaton Wallace 3:01 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0

Houston Rockets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Reed Sheppard SG 24:55 14 4 4 1 2 3 4 5-10 50.0 4-7 57.1 0-0 0.0 23.0
Jabari Smith Jr. SF 35:05 23 9 2 2 0 2 1 7-14 50.0 3-8 37.5 6-8 75.0 30.0
Amen Thompson PG 33:57 14 7 4 1 0 1 2 5-10 50.0 0-0 0.0 4-4 100.0 13.0
Kevin Durant PF 30:26 25 3 6 2 2 0 0 9-15 60.0 3-5 60.0 4-5 80.0 25.0
Alperen Sengun C 31:44 15 9 10 2 0 6 2 7-11 63.6 0-1 0.0 1-4 25.0 10.0
Steven Adams DNP - Inactive
Clint Capela 13:47 3 5 2 1 0 1 0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 1-4 25.0 8.0
Isaiah Crawford 5:54 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-3 33.3 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -7.0
JD Davison DNP - Inactive
Tari Eason 24:30 10 10 2 1 1 2 2 3-9 33.3 1-3 33.3 3-3 100.0 15.0
Dorian Finney-Smith DNP - Coach's Decision
Jeff Green 4:19 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Aaron Holiday 16:10 9 1 2 0 0 3 1 3-6 50.0 3-4 75.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Tristen Newton DNP - Inactive
Josh Okogie 19:10 2 3 0 1 0 1 1 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Jae'Sean Tate DNP - Inactive
Fred VanVleet DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: ATL @ HOU
Mar 21, 2026 at 08:56 AM
**Grade: B** — Right winner, scores a bit off. **Result:** ATL 95 - HOU 117 (Winner: HOU ✓) **Prediction:** ATL 111 - HOU 116 Score error: 16/1 | Total: pred 227, actual 212 (-15) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ MONEYLINE HOU -155 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE HOU -156 — WON
General Slate Analysis: ATL @ HOU
Mar 20, 2026 at 04:32 PM
**Prediction:** ATL 111 - HOU 116 (HOU by 5, total 227) **Confidence:** 85% **ATL** 26-29 (#9) | Net: -1.2 | Off: 111.7 | Def: 112.9 | Rest: 1d rest **HOU** 32-19 (#4) | Net: 5.1 | Off: 114.4 | Def: 109.3 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 102.0 **Injuries:** ATL: Jonathan Kuminga (Out) (impact: -3.0 pts) HOU: Steven Adams (Out), Jae'Sean Tate (Out), Fred VanVleet (Out) (impact: -1.3 pts) **Key Players:** ATL: Nickeil Alexander-Walker 21.3p/3.4r/2.6a | Jalen Johnson 18.6p/9.0r/7.2a | CJ McCollum 16.8p/3.2r/3.4a HOU: Kevin Durant 27.5p/6.1r/4.2a | Alperen Sengun 18.7p/10.0r/4.9a | Amen Thompson 18.2p/7.8r/6.0a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE HOU -155 (strong, EV $0.400/dollar) MONEYLINE HOU -156 (strong, EV $0.397/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred