Golden State Warriors 101 @ 115 Detroit Pistons

March 20, 2026 | Little Caesars Arena | Final

Grade: S Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Nailed it. Called the winner and basically the exact score. You're welcome.

GSW DET Total
Predicted 104 112 216
Actual 101 115 216
Diff +3 -3 0
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Chaz Lanier Pred: 2/0/0 | Actual: 0/0/0
Javonte Green Pred: 7/3/1 | Actual: 5/3/0
Malevy Leons Pred: 3/3/1 | Actual: 5/1/1
LJ Cryer Pred: 8/2/1 | Actual: 10/0/1
Tobias Harris Pred: 16/6/4 | Actual: 13/6/5
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Draymond Green Pred: 12pts | Actual: 0pts (off by 12)
Kristaps Porziņģis Pred: 16pts | Actual: 5pts (off by 11)
Daniss Jenkins Pred: 11pts | Actual: 22pts (off by 11)

Golden State Warriors

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
De'Anthony Melton SG 22:44 14 4 0 0 1 4 0 5-14 35.7 2-6 33.3 2-3 66.7 -21.0
Gui Santos SF 29:47 13 5 5 0 0 3 3 4-10 40.0 1-4 25.0 4-4 100.0 -3.0
Brandin Podziemski PG 30:25 15 6 3 1 1 2 1 4-10 40.0 2-4 50.0 5-6 83.3 -6.0
Draymond Green PF 22:15 0 5 6 1 1 4 2 0-2 0.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -15.0
Kristaps Porziņģis C 10:58 5 3 0 0 2 1 1 1-5 20.0 1-4 25.0 2-2 100.0 -6.0
Jimmy Butler III DNP - Inactive
LJ Cryer 16:02 10 0 1 1 0 2 1 3-6 50.0 3-5 60.0 1-1 100.0 2.0
Stephen Curry DNP - Inactive
Seth Curry DNP - Inactive
Al Horford DNP - Inactive
Malevy Leons 11:14 5 1 1 0 0 1 1 2-3 66.7 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Moses Moody DNP - Coach's Decision
Gary Payton II 24:49 14 3 3 1 0 1 2 6-8 75.0 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 -3.0
Quinten Post DNP - Coach's Decision
Will Richard 28:17 11 1 0 1 0 2 3 4-5 80.0 1-2 50.0 2-2 100.0 -4.0
Pat Spencer 22:30 6 4 2 0 1 2 0 3-6 50.0 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0

Detroit Pistons

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Duncan Robinson SG 29:04 11 1 2 2 0 0 4 4-9 44.4 2-6 33.3 1-2 50.0 37.0
Ausar Thompson SF 24:32 8 3 4 7 1 5 2 4-10 40.0 0-1 0.0 0-2 0.0 17.0
Daniss Jenkins PG 38:25 22 7 8 1 0 3 1 7-12 58.3 1-3 33.3 7-7 100.0 13.0
Tobias Harris PF 25:08 13 6 5 1 0 1 3 6-10 60.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 29.0
Jalen Duren C 21:25 23 6 1 1 0 2 5 8-12 66.7 0-0 0.0 7-9 77.8 14.0
Cade Cunningham DNP - Inactive
Javonte Green 20:11 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 2-3 66.7 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -14.0
Ronald Holland II 21:29 11 1 0 1 1 1 2 5-6 83.3 0-1 0.0 1-2 50.0 -26.0
Kevin Huerter DNP - Coach's Decision
Bobi Klintman DNP - Inactive
Chaz Lanier 12:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-2 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Caris LeVert 21:08 5 2 5 1 1 1 2 2-9 22.2 0-3 0.0 1-1 100.0 1.0
Wendell Moore Jr. DNP - Inactive
Paul Reed 22:58 15 6 3 2 1 0 0 6-12 50.0 0-3 0.0 3-6 50.0 6.0
Marcus Sasser DNP - Inactive
Tolu Smith 3:36 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -6.0
Isaiah Stewart DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: GSW @ DET
Mar 21, 2026 at 08:56 AM
**Grade: S** — Nailed it. **Result:** GSW 101 - DET 115 (Winner: DET ✓) **Prediction:** GSW 104 - DET 112 Score error: 3/3 | Total: pred 216, actual 216 (+0) **Standout Players:** Draymond Green (GSW): 0p actual vs 12.1p pred (+12.1) Kristaps Porziņģis (GSW): 5p actual vs 16.2p pred (+11.2) Daniss Jenkins (DET): 22p actual vs 11.0p pred (-11.0) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ MONEYLINE DET -205 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE DET -205 — WON ✓ SPREAD DET -4.5 — WON ✓ SPREAD DET -4.5 — WON
General Slate Analysis: GSW @ DET
Mar 20, 2026 at 04:32 PM
**Prediction:** GSW 104 - DET 111 (DET by 7, total 216) **Confidence:** 92% **GSW** 29-25 (#8) | Net: 2.0 | Off: 112.2 | Def: 110.2 | Rest: 1d rest **DET** 39-13 (#1) | Net: 7.5 | Off: 113.3 | Def: 105.8 | Rest: B2B Projected pace: 102.8 **Injuries:** GSW: Jimmy Butler III (Out), LJ Cryer (Day-To-Day), Stephen Curry (Out), Seth Curry (Out), Al Horford (Out), Moses Moody (Out), Quinten Post (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) DET: Cade Cunningham (Out), Jalen Duren (Day-To-Day), Kevin Huerter (Day-To-Day), Wendell Moore Jr. (Out), Marcus Sasser (Out), Isaiah Stewart (Out) (impact: -8.4 pts) **Key Players:** GSW: De'Anthony Melton 19.5p/4.5r/3.2a | Brandin Podziemski 16.5p/6.9r/5.3a | Kristaps Porziņģis 16.4p/5.2r/2.5a DET: Jalen Duren 19.4p/12.0r/1.3a | Tobias Harris 14.5p/6.5r/3.4a | Duncan Robinson 14.0p/3.4r/2.7a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE DET -205 (strong, EV $0.372/dollar) MONEYLINE DET -205 (strong, EV $0.372/dollar) SPREAD DET -4.5 (slight, EV $0.079/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [team] GSW without Curry+Butler is unpredictable for props. Role players (Melton, Podziemski, Horford) can explode beyond seaso - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred