**Grade: C** — Got the winner at least. **Result:** PHI 139 - SAC 118 (Winner: PHI ✓) **Prediction:** PHI 112 - SAC 108 Score error: 27/10 | Total: pred 221, actual 257 (+36) **Standout Players:** DeMar DeRozan (SAC): 13p actual vs 27.1p pred (+14.1) Malik Monk (SAC): 4p actual vs 17.5p pred (+13.5) Justin Edwards (PHI): 32p actual vs 10.3p pred (-21.7) VJ Edgecombe (PHI): 38p actual vs 16.1p pred (-21.9) Maxime Raynaud (SAC): 30p actual vs 15.4p pred (-14.6) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ TOTAL UNDER 229.5 — LOST ✓ MONEYLINE PHI -155 — WON ✗ TOTAL UNDER 228.5 — LOST ✓ MONEYLINE PHI -162 — WON

**Prediction:** PHI 112 - SAC 108 (PHI by 4, total 220) **Confidence:** 83% **PHI** 30-23 (#6) | Net: 1.2 | Off: 113.5 | Def: 112.3 | Rest: 1d rest **SAC** 12-43 (#15) | Net: -9.9 | Off: 108.0 | Def: 117.9 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 101.5 **Injuries:** PHI: Johni Broome (Out), Joel Embiid (Out), Paul George (Out), Tyrese Maxey (Out), Kelly Oubre Jr. (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) SAC: Devin Carter (Out), Nique Clifford (Day-To-Day), Drew Eubanks (Out), De'Andre Hunter (Out), Zach LaVine (Out), Malik Monk (Out), Keegan Murray (Out), Domantas Sabonis (Out) (impact: -7.0 pts) **Key Players:** PHI: Quentin Grimes 18.1p/3.5r/3.4a | VJ Edgecombe 16.3p/6.3r/4.8a | MarJon Beauchamp 11.9p/3.6r/1.4a SAC: DeMar DeRozan 27.1p/3.5r/5.8a | Russell Westbrook 19.7p/6.9r/10.5a | Maxime Raynaud 15.6p/10.2r/1.4a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 229.5 (strong, EV $0.384/dollar) MONEYLINE PHI -155 (strong, EV $0.369/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 228.5 (strong, EV $0.360/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred