PHX @ SAS - NBA Local

Grade: C Prediction Recap

Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

	PHX	SAS	Total
Predicted	105	119	224
Actual	100	101	201
Diff	+5	+18	+23

Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2

Devin Vassell Pred: 12/3/3 | Actual: 12/2/2

Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+

Collin Gillespie Pred: 11pts | Actual: 24pts (off by 12)

Victor Wembanyama Pred: 21pts | Actual: 34pts (off by 12)

Phoenix Suns

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Devin Booker	SG	34:21	22	0	5	0	0	4	3	8-21	38.1	0-4	0.0	6-7	85.7	-12.0
Jalen Green	SF	33:44	17	8	4	1	0	3	1	7-20	35.0	1-7	14.3	2-2	100.0	-5.0
Collin Gillespie	PG	34:15	24	2	6	2	0	1	2	7-13	53.8	6-11	54.5	4-4	100.0	3.0
Jordan Goodwin	PF	35:14	5	8	0	3	0	0	3	2-9	22.2	1-5	20.0	0-0	0.0	-14.0
Oso Ighodaro	C	33:59	15	7	7	1	0	0	4	7-10	70.0	0-0	0.0	1-2	50.0	-1.0
Grayson Allen	DNP - Inactive
Jamaree Bouyea		9:24	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0-3	0.0	0-1	0.0	0-0	0.0	12.0
Koby Brea	DNP - Coach's Decision
Dillon Brooks	DNP - Inactive
Amir Coffey		5:39	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	3.0
Ryan Dunn		19:31	5	8	1	1	0	0	0	2-5	40.0	1-3	33.3	0-0	0.0	-2.0
Rasheer Fleming		20:06	8	5	0	1	2	1	4	3-7	42.9	2-5	40.0	0-2	0.0	11.0
Isaiah Livers	DNP - Coach's Decision
Khaman Maluach		13:45	4	5	1	0	1	1	3	2-3	66.7	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	0.0
Royce O'Neale	DNP - Inactive
Mark Williams	DNP - Inactive

San Antonio Spurs

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Devin Vassell	SG	32:39	12	2	2	0	0	2	4	5-10	50.0	2-7	28.6	0-0	0.0	21.0
Julian Champagnie	SF	33:49	14	2	2	0	2	1	5	4-8	50.0	4-8	50.0	2-2	100.0	-1.0
De'Aaron Fox	PG	32:43	23	7	3	1	0	4	3	8-17	47.1	1-5	20.0	6-7	85.7	-7.0
Harrison Barnes	PF	23:05	6	1	3	1	0	0	0	3-6	50.0	0-2	0.0	0-0	0.0	-4.0
Victor Wembanyama	C	34:51	34	12	1	3	1	3	2	10-20	50.0	2-7	28.6	12-12	100.0	18.0
Bismack Biyombo	DNP - Coach's Decision
Carter Bryant		10:23	0	2	1	0	1	1	1	0-1	0.0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	-15.0
Stephon Castle	DNP - Inactive
Dylan Harper		26:28	5	6	5	0	0	2	2	2-9	22.2	1-2	50.0	0-0	0.0	10.0
Harrison Ingram	DNP - Inactive
Keldon Johnson		20:12	6	4	1	0	0	0	2	3-10	30.0	0-3	0.0	0-0	0.0	-5.0
David Jones Garcia	DNP - Inactive
Luke Kornet		15:25	1	4	0	0	0	0	0	0-2	0.0	0-0	0.0	1-2	50.0	-18.0
Jordan McLaughlin		10:23	0	2	5	1	1	1	0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	6.0
Emanuel Miller	DNP - Inactive
Kelly Olynyk	DNP - Coach's Decision
Lindy Waters III	DNP - Coach's Decision

Add Analysis Entry

General Post-Game Review: PHX @ SAS

Mar 20, 2026 at 07:38 AM

**Grade: C** — Got the winner at least.
**Result:** PHX 100 - SAS 101 (Winner: SAS ✓)
**Prediction:** PHX 105 - SAS 119
Score error: 5/18 | Total: pred 224, actual 201 (-23)

**Standout Players:**
  Collin Gillespie (PHX): 24p actual vs 11.3p pred (-12.7)
  Victor Wembanyama (SAS): 34p actual vs 21.3p pred (-12.7)

**Value Bet Results:**
  ✗ SPREAD SAS -9.5 — LOST
  ✓ MONEYLINE SAS -430 — WON
  ✗ SPREAD SAS -9.5 — LOST
  ✓ TOTAL UNDER 227.5 — WON
  ✓ MONEYLINE SAS -470 — WON
  ✓ TOTAL UNDER 227.5 — WON

General Slate Analysis: PHX @ SAS

Mar 19, 2026 at 08:07 AM

**Prediction:** PHX 105 - SAS 118 (SAS by 14, total 223)
**Confidence:** 95%

**PHX** 31-22 (#7) | Net: 2.2 | Off: 112.3 | Def: 110.2 | Rest: 1d rest
**SAS** 36-16 (#2) | Net: 5.3 | Off: 114.4 | Def: 109.2 | Rest: 1d rest
Projected pace: 101.8

**Injuries:**
  PHX: Grayson Allen (Day-To-Day), Dillon Brooks (Out), Royce O'Neale (Day-To-Day), Mark Williams (Out) (impact: -8.1 pts)
  SAS: David Jones Garcia (Out) (impact: -0.3 pts)

**Key Players:**
  PHX: Devin Booker 29.8p/4.1r/6.4a | Jalen Green 25.7p/3.8r/3.4a | Grayson Allen 12.8p/2.0r/3.8a
  SAS: Victor Wembanyama 21.5p/11.8r/2.8a | De'Aaron Fox 19.1p/3.6r/6.4a | Stephon Castle 18.2p/5.2r/7.2a

**Value Bets:**
  SPREAD SAS -9.5 (moderate, EV $0.202/dollar)
  MONEYLINE SAS -430 (moderate, EV $0.175/dollar)
  SPREAD SAS -9.5 (moderate, EV $0.173/dollar)

**Applicable Insights:**
  - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out
  - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M
  - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on 
  - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 (
  - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p 
  - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance 
  - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 (
  - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi
  - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted
  - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod
  - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN
  - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com
  - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2
  - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression
  - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte
  - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred

Phoenix Suns 100 @ 101 San Antonio Spurs