Los Angeles Clippers 99 @ 105 New Orleans Pelicans

March 19, 2026 | Smoothie King Center | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

LAC NOP Total
Predicted 113 117 229
Actual 99 105 204
Diff +14 +12 +25
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
John Collins Pred: 18/7/1 | Actual: 18/8/1
Brook Lopez Pred: 9/4/2 | Actual: 6/3/2
Karlo Matković Pred: 6/6/1 | Actual: 3/5/0
Herbert Jones Pred: 8/4/2 | Actual: 11/3/2
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Bogdan Bogdanović Pred: 6pts | Actual: 16pts (off by 10)

Los Angeles Clippers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Jordan Miller SG 37:03 11 8 5 1 0 0 0 2-8 25.0 0-3 0.0 7-11 63.6 -17.0
Derrick Jones Jr. SF 33:39 22 4 3 1 0 1 4 7-11 63.6 1-2 50.0 7-7 100.0 -3.0
Kris Dunn PG 34:16 8 7 3 3 0 3 2 3-8 37.5 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
John Collins PF 27:32 18 8 1 1 0 3 2 7-14 50.0 3-8 37.5 1-3 33.3 -4.0
Brook Lopez C 28:50 6 3 2 0 1 3 5 2-9 22.2 0-3 0.0 2-6 33.3 -8.0
Nicolas Batum DNP - Coach's Decision
Bradley Beal DNP - Inactive
Bogdan Bogdanović 27:19 16 1 1 0 0 2 3 6-9 66.7 3-5 60.0 1-2 50.0 0.0
Cam Christie 12:27 0 2 2 1 0 2 0 0-2 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Darius Garland DNP - Inactive
Isaiah Jackson 19:09 13 6 1 0 1 0 1 6-9 66.7 0-2 0.0 1-3 33.3 2.0
Yanic Konan Niederhäuser DNP - Inactive
Kawhi Leonard DNP - Inactive
Bennedict Mathurin DNP - Inactive
Kobe Sanders 19:44 5 0 2 4 0 1 4 2-6 33.3 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
TyTy Washington Jr. DNP - Coach's Decision

New Orleans Pelicans

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Trey Murphy III SG 34:40 27 5 2 1 0 3 2 9-17 52.9 5-11 45.5 4-4 100.0 4.0
Saddiq Bey SF 35:33 20 6 6 1 0 0 0 6-11 54.5 3-4 75.0 5-5 100.0 1.0
Herbert Jones PG 30:06 11 3 2 2 0 1 3 4-11 36.4 3-7 42.9 0-0 0.0 12.0
Zion Williamson PF 33:01 15 5 2 3 0 2 3 5-7 71.4 0-0 0.0 5-7 71.4 12.0
Yves Missi C 27:19 11 11 4 0 1 4 5 5-5 100.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -12.0
Trey Alexander DNP - Inactive
Hunter Dickinson DNP - Inactive
Jeremiah Fears 23:32 8 0 2 2 0 1 0 4-10 40.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Jordan Hawkins DNP - Coach's Decision
DeAndre Jordan DNP - Coach's Decision
Kevon Looney DNP - Coach's Decision
Karlo Matković 23:07 3 5 0 1 1 1 3 0-6 0.0 0-4 0.0 3-4 75.0 6.0
Bryce McGowens DNP - Inactive
Dejounte Murray DNP - Inactive
Micah Peavy DNP - Coach's Decision
Jordan Poole 17:11 5 0 3 0 0 0 2 2-6 33.3 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 5.0
Derik Queen 15:30 5 5 0 1 0 4 1 2-5 40.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: LAC @ NOP
Mar 20, 2026 at 07:38 AM
**Grade: C** — Got the winner at least. **Result:** LAC 99 - NOP 105 (Winner: NOP ✓) **Prediction:** LAC 113 - NOP 117 Score error: 14/12 | Total: pred 229, actual 204 (-25) **Standout Players:** Bogdan Bogdanović (LAC): 16p actual vs 5.7p pred (-10.3) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ MONEYLINE NOP -120 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE NOP -125 — WON ✓ SPREAD NOP -1.5 — WON ✓ SPREAD NOP -1.5 — WON
General Slate Analysis: LAC @ NOP
Mar 19, 2026 at 08:07 AM
**Prediction:** LAC 113 - NOP 117 (NOP by 4, total 231) **Confidence:** 84% **LAC** 25-27 (#10) | Net: -0.4 | Off: 113.4 | Def: 113.7 | Rest: B2B **NOP** 15-40 (#14) | Net: -5.5 | Off: 110.7 | Def: 116.2 | Rest: B2B Projected pace: 100.5 **Injuries:** LAC: Nicolas Batum (Out), Bradley Beal (Out), Yanic Konan Niederhäuser (Out), Bennedict Mathurin (Out) (impact: -3.8 pts) NOP: Bryce McGowens (Out) (impact: -1.0 pts) **Key Players:** LAC: Kawhi Leonard 32.5p/6.4r/3.7a | Darius Garland 19.5p/1.6r/7.4a | John Collins 15.6p/6.3r/1.3a NOP: Dejounte Murray 19.7p/4.7r/6.4a | Trey Murphy III 18.5p/5.5r/4.2a | Zion Williamson 16.9p/4.4r/2.2a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE NOP -120 (strong, EV $0.545/dollar) MONEYLINE NOP -125 (strong, EV $0.517/dollar) SPREAD NOP -1.5 (slight, EV $0.098/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred