Detroit Pistons 117 @ 95 Washington Wizards

March 19, 2026 | Capital One Arena | Final

Grade: B Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

DET WAS Total
Predicted 122 107 229
Actual 117 95 212
Diff +5 +12 +17
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Daniss Jenkins Pred: 10/3/5 | Actual: 9/2/5
Will Riley Pred: 15/4/2 | Actual: 15/3/1
Chaz Lanier Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 0/0/0
Duncan Robinson Pred: 15/4/3 | Actual: 14/5/2
Jaden Hardy Pred: 10/2/1 | Actual: 13/0/2
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Alex Sarr Pred: 14pts | Actual: 2pts (off by 11)
Ronald Holland II Pred: 12pts | Actual: 2pts (off by 10)
Tristan Vukcevic Pred: 11pts | Actual: 21pts (off by 10)

Detroit Pistons

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Duncan Robinson SG 26:58 14 5 2 0 1 2 1 5-10 50.0 4-9 44.4 0-0 0.0 7.0
Ausar Thompson SF 24:03 10 9 3 1 2 2 0 3-7 42.9 0-0 0.0 4-4 100.0 5.0
Daniss Jenkins PG 33:32 9 2 5 0 1 0 1 3-16 18.8 2-7 28.6 1-1 100.0 18.0
Tobias Harris PF 21:58 7 7 5 0 2 1 1 2-6 33.3 0-1 0.0 3-4 75.0 8.0
Jalen Duren C 24:47 24 11 0 2 0 1 0 9-15 60.0 0-0 0.0 6-8 75.0 15.0
Cade Cunningham DNP - Inactive
Javonte Green 5:04 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -12.0
Ronald Holland II 19:56 2 5 1 0 0 1 3 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 15.0
Kevin Huerter 23:20 14 5 2 4 0 0 1 6-10 60.0 0-2 0.0 2-2 100.0 26.0
Bobi Klintman DNP - Inactive
Chaz Lanier 2:30 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Caris LeVert 20:11 14 5 6 1 0 2 2 5-8 62.5 3-5 60.0 1-3 33.3 16.0
Wendell Moore Jr. DNP - Inactive
Paul Reed 20:43 17 4 3 0 2 1 3 7-11 63.6 0-0 0.0 3-4 75.0 6.0
Marcus Sasser 14:28 2 1 5 0 0 0 2 1-5 20.0 0-4 0.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Tolu Smith 2:30 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Isaiah Stewart DNP - Inactive

Washington Wizards

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Sharife Cooper SG 26:56 13 7 2 0 0 2 2 6-8 75.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
Tre Johnson SF 24:10 12 1 2 0 0 1 2 5-11 45.5 2-6 33.3 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Bub Carrington PG 34:43 10 6 4 0 0 3 2 4-11 36.4 1-6 16.7 1-1 100.0 -25.0
Will Riley PF 39:41 15 3 1 0 0 2 1 5-13 38.5 4-8 50.0 1-2 50.0 -11.0
Alex Sarr C 21:26 2 3 2 0 2 2 5 1-12 8.3 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Justin Champagnie DNP - Coach's Decision
Bilal Coulibaly DNP - Coach's Decision
Anthony Davis DNP - Inactive
Kyshawn George DNP - Inactive
Anthony Gill 24:21 0 5 3 0 3 1 2 0-3 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -28.0
Jaden Hardy 24:35 13 0 2 0 0 3 1 5-10 50.0 3-7 42.9 0-0 0.0 -12.0
D'Angelo Russell DNP - Inactive
Tristan Vukcevic 17:31 21 4 1 0 1 4 4 7-8 87.5 3-3 100.0 4-6 66.7 -6.0
Jamir Watkins 26:37 9 6 3 3 4 1 2 3-6 50.0 1-2 50.0 2-3 66.7 -14.0
Cam Whitmore DNP - Inactive
Trae Young DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: DET @ WAS
Mar 20, 2026 at 07:38 AM
**Grade: B** — Right winner, scores a bit off. **Result:** DET 117 - WAS 95 (Winner: DET ✓) **Prediction:** DET 122 - WAS 107 Score error: 5/12 | Total: pred 229, actual 212 (-17) **Standout Players:** Tristan Vukcevic (WAS): 21p actual vs 10.9p pred (-10.1) Ronald Holland II (DET): 2p actual vs 12.5p pred (+10.5) Alex Sarr (WAS): 2p actual vs 13.6p pred (+11.6)
General Slate Analysis: DET @ WAS
Mar 19, 2026 at 08:07 AM
**Prediction:** DET 122 - WAS 106 (DET by 16, total 228) **Confidence:** 96% **DET** 39-13 (#1) | Net: 7.5 | Off: 113.3 | Def: 105.8 | Rest: 1d rest **WAS** 14-38 (#14) | Net: -10.3 | Off: 108.0 | Def: 118.3 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 103.2 **Injuries:** DET: Cade Cunningham (Out), Wendell Moore Jr. (Out), Isaiah Stewart (Out) (impact: -7.9 pts) WAS: Bilal Coulibaly (Day-To-Day), Anthony Davis (Out), Kyshawn George (Out), D'Angelo Russell (Out), Alex Sarr (Day-To-Day), Cam Whitmore (Out), Trae Young (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) **Key Players:** DET: Jalen Duren 28.0p/13.5r/1.8a | Tobias Harris 16.3p/5.7r/3.1a | Duncan Robinson 15.2p/3.6r/3.1a WAS: Will Riley 14.9p/4.2r/2.3a | Bub Carrington 14.0p/4.0r/5.5a | Justin Champagnie 12.9p/6.6r/1.6a **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred