ORL @ CHA - NBA Local

Grade: B Prediction Recap

Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

	ORL	CHA	Total
Predicted	110	117	227
Actual	111	130	241
Diff	-1	-13	-14

Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2

Tre Mann Pred: 4/1/1 | Actual: 3/0/1

Xavier Tillman Pred: 1/1/0 | Actual: 0/0/0

Josh Green Pred: 4/1/1 | Actual: 5/3/0

Sion James Pred: 5/3/2 | Actual: 6/3/4

Kon Knueppel Pred: 18/5/3 | Actual: 17/6/4

Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+

Tristan da Silva Pred: 15pts | Actual: 4pts (off by 10)

Jamal Cain Pred: 5pts | Actual: 15pts (off by 10)

Orlando Magic

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Desmond Bane	SG	25:44	24	7	2	1	0	2	0	8-15	53.3	3-5	60.0	5-5	100.0	-21.0
Tristan da Silva	SF	22:21	4	2	1	1	1	0	1	1-4	25.0	0-2	0.0	2-2	100.0	-12.0
Jalen Suggs	PG	21:54	9	0	1	2	1	2	1	4-12	33.3	1-5	20.0	0-0	0.0	-15.0
Paolo Banchero	PF	28:23	20	3	7	1	1	3	3	6-16	37.5	1-5	20.0	7-8	87.5	-23.0
Goga Bitadze	C	18:57	4	2	1	1	1	0	4	2-3	66.7	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	-17.0
Anthony Black	DNP - Inactive
Jamal Cain		18:25	15	1	1	1	0	1	2	5-10	50.0	3-7	42.9	2-2	100.0	9.0
Jevon Carter		18:42	11	4	3	2	0	1	1	4-11	36.4	3-7	42.9	0-0	0.0	-9.0
Wendell Carter Jr.	DNP - Inactive
Colin Castleton		10:19	2	4	1	0	0	2	1	1-3	33.3	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	12.0
Jett Howard		15:46	5	1	0	1	0	0	3	2-3	66.7	1-2	50.0	0-0	0.0	-24.0
Jonathan Isaac	DNP - Inactive
Noah Penda		21:21	8	2	2	0	0	1	0	3-8	37.5	2-6	33.3	0-0	0.0	0.0
Jase Richardson		7:24	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	1-1	100.0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	5.0
Franz Wagner	DNP - Inactive
Moritz Wagner		18:44	5	1	1	0	0	0	2	1-5	20.0	0-3	0.0	3-4	75.0	-14.0

Charlotte Hornets

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Brandon Miller	SG	28:09	25	4	8	0	0	2	2	8-14	57.1	5-10	50.0	4-4	100.0	27.0
Kon Knueppel	SF	25:03	17	6	4	0	0	2	4	5-11	45.5	4-9	44.4	3-3	100.0	7.0
LaMelo Ball	PG	20:14	20	6	5	3	1	3	3	7-13	53.8	3-8	37.5	3-3	100.0	12.0
Miles Bridges	PF	22:57	11	3	0	0	0	1	3	4-8	50.0	1-3	33.3	2-3	66.7	18.0
Moussa Diabaté	C	24:29	3	5	1	0	1	3	2	1-3	33.3	0-0	0.0	1-1	100.0	10.0
Pat Connaughton		6:50	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-2	0.0	0-1	0.0	0-0	0.0	-8.0
Tosan Evbuomwan	DNP - Inactive
Josh Green		18:02	5	3	0	1	0	0	2	2-4	50.0	1-3	33.3	0-0	0.0	-5.0
PJ Hall	DNP - Inactive
Sion James		21:40	6	3	4	2	0	0	0	2-2	100.0	2-2	100.0	0-0	0.0	30.0
Ryan Kalkbrenner		23:31	13	5	0	0	0	2	2	5-5	100.0	0-0	0.0	3-3	100.0	9.0
Tre Mann		6:50	3	0	1	1	0	2	1	1-3	33.3	1-1	100.0	0-0	0.0	-8.0
Liam McNeeley	DNP - Inactive
Antonio Reeves	DNP - Inactive
Tidjane Salaün	DNP - Inactive
Xavier Tillman		1:56	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-1	0.0	0-0	0.0	0-2	0.0	-4.0
Coby White		22:49	27	3	5	0	0	4	2	7-13	53.8	5-8	62.5	8-8	100.0	-2.0
Grant Williams		17:29	0	3	0	0	0	3	3	0-1	0.0	0-1	0.0	0-0	0.0	9.0

Add Analysis Entry

General Post-Game Review: ORL @ CHA

Mar 20, 2026 at 07:38 AM

**Grade: B** — Right winner, scores a bit off.
**Result:** ORL 111 - CHA 130 (Winner: CHA ✓)
**Prediction:** ORL 110 - CHA 117
Score error: 1/13 | Total: pred 227, actual 241 (+14)

**Standout Players:**
  Jamal Cain (ORL): 15p actual vs 4.6p pred (-10.4)
  Tristan da Silva (ORL): 4p actual vs 14.7p pred (+10.7)

**Value Bet Results:**
  ✓ MONEYLINE CHA -205 — WON
  ✓ MONEYLINE CHA -218 — WON
  ✓ SPREAD CHA -5.0 — WON
  ✓ SPREAD CHA -5.5 — WON

General Slate Analysis: ORL @ CHA

Mar 19, 2026 at 08:07 AM

**Prediction:** ORL 108 - CHA 117 (CHA by 9, total 225)
**Confidence:** 93%

**ORL** 28-24 (#7) | Net: 0.0 | Off: 111.5 | Def: 111.5 | Rest: 1d rest
**CHA** 25-29 (#10) | Net: 1.8 | Off: 113.2 | Def: 111.4 | Rest: 1d rest
Projected pace: 102.2

**Injuries:**
  ORL: Anthony Black (Out), Jonathan Isaac (Out), Jalen Suggs (Out), Franz Wagner (Out) (impact: -8.9 pts)
  CHA: Tidjane Salaün (Out) (impact: -1.0 pts)

**Key Players:**
  ORL: Paolo Banchero 26.2p/10.7r/6.2a | Desmond Bane 23.9p/4.9r/5.5a | Wendell Carter Jr. 15.5p/9.7r/2.6a
  CHA: LaMelo Ball 22.2p/5.4r/7.8a | Kon Knueppel 18.5p/4.6r/3.0a | Coby White 17.5p/3.1r/4.0a

**Value Bets:**
  MONEYLINE CHA -205 (strong, EV $0.387/dollar)
  MONEYLINE CHA -218 (strong, EV $0.359/dollar)
  SPREAD CHA -5.0 (moderate, EV $0.184/dollar)

**Applicable Insights:**
  - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out
  - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M
  - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on 
  - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 (
  - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p 
  - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance 
  - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 (
  - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi
  - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted
  - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod
  - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN
  - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com
  - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2
  - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression
  - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte
  - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred

Orlando Magic 111 @ 130 Charlotte Hornets