NYK @ MEM - NBA Local

Grade: B Prediction Recap

Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

	NYK	MEM	Total
Predicted	120	111	231
Actual	130	119	249
Diff	-10	-8	-18

Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2

Mohamed Diawara Pred: 3/1/0 | Actual: 4/0/0

Walter Clayton Jr. Pred: 8/2/4 | Actual: 10/1/5

Jahmai Mashack Pred: 6/2/2 | Actual: 7/4/0

Jordan Clarkson Pred: 10/2/2 | Actual: 8/1/0

Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+

GG Jackson Pred: 9pts | Actual: 20pts (off by 11)

New York Knicks

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Mikal Bridges	SG	35:52	24	2	1	0	1	3	1	9-15	60.0	3-9	33.3	3-3	100.0	-6.0
Josh Hart	SF	24:55	5	6	6	1	0	3	3	2-4	50.0	1-2	50.0	0-0	0.0	-6.0
Jose Alvarado	PG	31:59	15	4	4	2	1	3	4	6-12	50.0	1-5	20.0	2-2	100.0	0.0
OG Anunoby	PF	39:42	25	13	3	1	2	1	3	8-17	47.1	4-8	50.0	5-6	83.3	15.0
Karl-Anthony Towns	C	29:28	20	11	11	0	1	7	3	8-12	66.7	0-0	0.0	4-5	80.0	5.0
Jalen Brunson	DNP - Inactive
Jordan Clarkson		11:14	8	1	0	0	0	0	0	3-4	75.0	0-0	0.0	2-2	100.0	11.0
Pacôme Dadiet	DNP - Coach's Decision
Mohamed Diawara		5:12	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	2-3	66.7	0-1	0.0	0-0	0.0	0.0
Ariel Hukporti		11:53	7	6	3	0	1	1	3	2-5	40.0	0-0	0.0	3-3	100.0	13.0
Trey Jemison III	DNP - Coach's Decision
Dillon Jones	DNP - Coach's Decision
Tyler Kolek		19:10	9	3	7	0	0	0	2	3-6	50.0	1-2	50.0	2-2	100.0	9.0
Miles McBride	DNP - Inactive
Kevin McCullar Jr.	DNP - Coach's Decision
Mitchell Robinson	DNP - Inactive
Landry Shamet		30:32	13	3	1	2	0	1	0	5-9	55.6	3-5	60.0	0-1	0.0	14.0
Jeremy Sochan	DNP - Coach's Decision

Memphis Grizzlies

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Cam Spencer	SG	21:29	10	1	8	1	0	2	2	2-4	50.0	1-2	50.0	5-5	100.0	3.0
Cedric Coward	SF	28:20	15	0	0	1	0	1	5	5-11	45.5	1-3	33.3	4-5	80.0	6.0
Javon Small	PG	24:31	13	0	4	1	0	0	2	4-5	80.0	2-3	66.7	3-4	75.0	4.0
GG Jackson	PF	25:17	20	3	4	0	1	0	0	8-12	66.7	3-4	75.0	1-2	50.0	2.0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	C	24:31	17	4	1	2	1	0	1	6-11	54.5	1-4	25.0	4-5	80.0	4.0
Santi Aldama	DNP - Inactive
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	DNP - Inactive
Brandon Clarke	DNP - Inactive
Walter Clayton Jr.		22:39	10	1	5	0	0	2	3	3-7	42.9	2-4	50.0	2-2	100.0	-23.0
Zach Edey	DNP - Inactive
Taylor Hendricks	DNP - Coach's Decision
Ty Jerome	DNP - Inactive
Jahmai Mashack		23:29	7	4	0	3	0	4	4	2-5	40.0	1-3	33.3	2-2	100.0	-15.0
Ja Morant	DNP - Inactive
Scotty Pippen Jr.	DNP - Inactive
Rayan Rupert	DNP - Inactive
Jaylen Wells	DNP - Inactive

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General Post-Game Review: NYK @ MEM

Apr 02, 2026 at 06:27 AM

**Grade: B** — Right winner, scores a bit off.
**Result:** NYK 130 - MEM 119 (Winner: NYK ✓)
**Prediction:** NYK 120 - MEM 111
Score error: 10/8 | Total: pred 231, actual 249 (+18)

**Standout Players:**
  GG Jackson (MEM): 20p actual vs 8.6p pred (-11.4)

**Value Bet Results:**
  ✗ TOTAL UNDER 227.5 — LOST
  ✗ TOTAL UNDER 228.5 — LOST

General Slate Analysis: NYK @ MEM

Apr 01, 2026 at 06:22 AM

**Prediction:** NYK 116 - MEM 103 (NYK by 13, total 219)
**Confidence:** 95%

**NYK** 48-26 (#3) | Net: 6.5 | Off: 116.7 | Def: 110.2 | Rest: B2B
**MEM** 24-48 (#12) | Net: -3.8 | Off: 110.1 | Def: 114.0 | Rest: 1d rest
Projected pace: 102.1

**Injuries:**
  NYK: Landry Shamet (Out) (impact: -1.0 pts)
  MEM: Santi Aldama (Out), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Out), Brandon Clarke (Out), Zach Edey (Out), Taylor Hendricks (Day-To-Day), Ty Jerome (Out), Ja Morant (Out), Scotty Pippen Jr. (Out), Jaylen Wells (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts)

**Key Players:**
  NYK: Jalen Brunson 27.5p/3.1r/8.1a | Karl-Anthony Towns 19.3p/12.7r/2.4a | Mikal Bridges 16.1p/2.9r/4.3a
  MEM: Cedric Coward 15.1p/5.2r/3.7a | Javon Small 12.0p/3.9r/4.7a | Cam Spencer 11.5p/2.7r/6.6a

**Value Bets:**
  TOTAL UNDER 227.5 (strong, EV $0.385/dollar)
  TOTAL UNDER 228.5 (strong, EV $0.379/dollar)

**Applicable Insights:**
  - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out
  - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M
  - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on 
  - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 (
  - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p 
  - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 (
  - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod
  - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN
  - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com
  - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2
  - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression
  - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte
  - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred

New York Knicks 130 @ 119 Memphis Grizzlies